This document includes full model tables and summaries to accompany Taff & Shipley. Please see the paper for descriptions of output.
Climate models
Several GAMs were fit to explore changes in average temperature anomaly and the timing of cold-snaps and heat-waves. See manuscript for descriptions of models.
Time series for spring temperature anomaly
Table 1: Results of the GAM for time series of spring temperature anomly for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
0.160 |
0.006 |
28.957 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
18.675 |
23.598 |
20.609 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
8.936 |
8.999 |
381.290 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.117 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.118 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
29593 |
|
|
|
Time series for cold-snap anomaly
Table 2: Results of the GAM for time series of first cold-snap timing with a temperature threshold of 18.5C for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-1.539 |
0.118 |
-13.047 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
22.486 |
26.637 |
28.116 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.691 |
8.565 |
29.269 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.035 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.036 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
27158 |
|
|
|
Table 3: Results of the GAM for time series of first cold-snap timing with a temperature threshold of 16C for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-0.851 |
0.099 |
-8.555 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
19.246 |
24.099 |
20.116 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
8.575 |
8.948 |
20.724 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.024 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.025 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
26916 |
|
|
|
Table 4: Results of the GAM for time series of first cold-snap timing with a temperature threshold of 13C for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-1.116 |
0.090 |
-12.449 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
22.240 |
26.479 |
15.750 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
8.715 |
8.976 |
21.706 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.022 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.024 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
26447 |
|
|
|
Time series for heat-wave anomaly
Table 5: Results of the GAM for time series of last heat-wave timing with a temperature threshold of 26C for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-0.778 |
0.121 |
-6.453 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
8.545 |
8.941 |
13.580 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
21.409 |
25.869 |
13.131 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.017 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.018 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
27259 |
|
|
|
Table 6: Results of the GAM for time series of last heat-wave timing with a temperature threshold of 31C for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-0.348 |
0.127 |
-2.739 |
0.006 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
24.413 |
27.771 |
18.124 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
8.408 |
8.902 |
17.011 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.024 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.025 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
27259 |
|
|
|
Table 7: Results of the GAM for time series of last heat-wave timing with a temperature threshold of 36C for each grid cell.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-1.098 |
0.117 |
-9.411 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
8.660 |
49.398 |
8.660 |
49.398 |
|
s(year) |
8.967 |
0.000 |
8.967 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.016 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.017 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
27101 |
|
|
|
Average temperature anomaly compared to cold-snap anomaly
Table 8: Average temperature anomaly compared to average cold-snap anomaly for each grid cell. Averages include years from 1995-2020.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-2.382 |
0.382 |
-6.244 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(average anomaly) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.491 |
0.223 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
14.709 |
19.515 |
9.330 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.407 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.441 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
281 |
|
|
|
Average Temperature anomaly compared to heat-wave anomaly
Table 9: Average temperature anomaly compared to average heat-wave anomaly for each grid cell. Averages include years from 1995-2020.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-0.705 |
0.352 |
-2.002 |
0.046 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(average anomaly) |
4.324 |
5.329 |
1.356 |
0.229 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
17.234 |
22.037 |
2.940 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.358 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.407 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
282 |
|
|
|
Grid temperature compared to cold-snap
Table 10: Spring temperature anomaly compared to timing of last cold-snap for each grid and year combination.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-2.340 |
0.209 |
-11.217 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(spring anomaly) |
1.460 |
1.798 |
288.652 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
22.837 |
26.870 |
25.726 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
3.768 |
4.660 |
19.980 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.164 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.168 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
7221 |
|
|
|
Grid temperature compared to heat-wave
Table 11: Spring temperature anomaly compared to timing of last heat-wave for each grid and year combination.
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
-0.742 |
0.219 |
-3.395 |
0.001 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(spring anomaly) |
5.099 |
6.252 |
165.984 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
22.601 |
26.712 |
10.025 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.230 |
1.423 |
8.964 |
0.001 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.170 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.174 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
7247 |
|
|
|
Species susceptibility to temperature extremes
One model was fit for each of 24 species using incubation measures and a second model was fit using provisioning measures. The two models for each species are combined into one table per species. Plots are included showing the relationship between relative fitness, coldest three day period, and hottest three day period for each species during incubation and provisioning.
Northern cardinal
Table 12: Results of GAMs for northern cardinal breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
1.293 |
0.059 |
21.779 |
0.000 |
1.726 |
0.066 |
26.017 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.072 |
0.789 |
4.847 |
5.936 |
1.824 |
0.096 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.927 |
0.336 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.370 |
0.543 |
|
s(day of year) |
3.744 |
4.653 |
3.801 |
0.003 |
3.701 |
4.606 |
2.427 |
0.043 |
|
s(year) |
3.271 |
4.037 |
1.953 |
0.106 |
3.212 |
3.964 |
1.387 |
0.259 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
31.044 |
43.007 |
1.221 |
0.168 |
15.946 |
22.586 |
1.264 |
0.192 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.139 |
|
|
|
0.131 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.217 |
|
|
|
0.207 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
442 |
|
|
|
330 |
|
|
|
House finch
Table 13: Results of GAMs for house finch breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.004 |
0.080 |
37.588 |
0.000 |
3.596 |
0.070 |
51.348 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.067 |
0.302 |
1.400 |
1.714 |
1.002 |
0.466 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.059 |
2.642 |
1.280 |
0.226 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
2.922 |
0.088 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.037 |
2.571 |
0.965 |
0.483 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.324 |
0.569 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.114 |
0.736 |
4.052 |
4.959 |
0.855 |
0.487 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
11.613 |
16.388 |
1.201 |
0.261 |
2.000 |
2.000 |
0.421 |
0.656 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.047 |
|
|
|
0.009 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.078 |
|
|
|
0.029 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
545 |
|
|
|
453 |
|
|
|
Barn swallow
Table 14: Results of GAMs for barn swallow breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.289 |
0.068 |
48.061 |
0.000 |
3.663 |
0.059 |
62.123 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
3.818 |
4.758 |
2.924 |
0.016 |
2.258 |
2.886 |
2.211 |
0.092 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.461 |
0.227 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.079 |
0.778 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.479 |
3.156 |
1.749 |
0.160 |
2.442 |
3.120 |
4.063 |
0.006 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
2.932 |
0.087 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
4.096 |
0.043 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
10.213 |
14.140 |
1.700 |
0.050 |
5.639 |
7.848 |
2.139 |
0.033 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.066 |
|
|
|
0.080 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.094 |
|
|
|
0.101 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
624 |
|
|
|
560 |
|
|
|
Black-capped chickadee
Table 15: Results of GAMs for black-capped chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.704 |
0.053 |
69.972 |
0.000 |
4.681 |
0.048 |
97.385 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.261 |
0.610 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.176 |
0.675 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
5.591 |
6.677 |
1.645 |
0.097 |
1.977 |
2.523 |
1.837 |
0.135 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
7.322 |
0.007 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
16.832 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
5.922 |
0.015 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.382 |
0.240 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
91.253 |
119.319 |
1.488 |
0.001 |
66.170 |
88.890 |
1.620 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.068 |
|
|
|
0.074 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.105 |
|
|
|
0.108 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
2492 |
|
|
|
1965 |
|
|
|
Purple martin
Table 16: Results of GAMs for purple martin breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.411 |
0.009 |
385.509 |
0.000 |
3.659 |
0.008 |
461.687 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
6.848 |
7.639 |
23.111 |
0.000 |
7.193 |
7.969 |
15.109 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
3.053 |
3.897 |
2.132 |
0.070 |
8.869 |
8.989 |
16.633 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
7.690 |
8.437 |
270.406 |
0.000 |
7.822 |
8.546 |
219.874 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.827 |
8.637 |
7.924 |
0.000 |
8.057 |
8.758 |
5.650 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
162.179 |
176.511 |
10.206 |
0.000 |
168.009 |
178.692 |
9.110 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.135 |
|
|
|
0.131 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.141 |
|
|
|
0.137 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
30456 |
|
|
|
28392 |
|
|
|
Eastern phoebe
Table 17: Results of GAMs for eastern phoebe breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.091 |
0.063 |
49.404 |
0.000 |
3.501 |
0.056 |
63.041 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
6.170 |
7.309 |
1.531 |
0.153 |
2.789 |
3.568 |
3.838 |
0.006 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.118 |
0.731 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.402 |
0.237 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.287 |
0.592 |
1.799 |
2.265 |
3.246 |
0.040 |
|
s(year) |
1.191 |
1.350 |
0.167 |
0.827 |
4.899 |
5.905 |
1.061 |
0.438 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
5.735 |
8.013 |
1.612 |
0.116 |
4.021 |
5.406 |
3.822 |
0.002 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.021 |
|
|
|
0.056 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.038 |
|
|
|
0.074 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
867 |
|
|
|
762 |
|
|
|
Eastern bluebird
Table 18: Results of GAMs for eastern bluebird breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.044 |
0.007 |
413.527 |
0.000 |
3.478 |
0.006 |
547.030 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
6.694 |
7.636 |
10.732 |
0.000 |
5.681 |
6.707 |
15.695 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
7.533 |
8.248 |
12.619 |
0.000 |
8.650 |
8.939 |
16.679 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
8.024 |
8.687 |
38.932 |
0.000 |
6.838 |
7.802 |
80.178 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.647 |
8.303 |
17.758 |
0.000 |
7.544 |
8.232 |
17.686 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
339.793 |
388.196 |
6.013 |
0.000 |
311.001 |
366.861 |
5.628 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.071 |
|
|
|
0.081 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.077 |
|
|
|
0.088 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
53424 |
|
|
|
46588 |
|
|
|
Tree swallow
Table 19: Results of GAMs for tree swallow breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.384 |
0.011 |
306.167 |
0.000 |
3.841 |
0.010 |
395.828 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
5.430 |
6.461 |
17.419 |
0.000 |
2.656 |
3.430 |
4.719 |
0.002 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.846 |
3.656 |
3.089 |
0.021 |
7.624 |
8.407 |
4.083 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
8.121 |
8.723 |
96.329 |
0.000 |
5.572 |
6.578 |
97.729 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.584 |
1.965 |
9.911 |
0.000 |
7.266 |
8.181 |
3.938 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
269.711 |
304.006 |
7.358 |
0.000 |
258.269 |
296.635 |
8.399 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.096 |
|
|
|
0.111 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.105 |
|
|
|
0.121 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
29065 |
|
|
|
25494 |
|
|
|
House wren
Table 20: Results of GAMs for house wren breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.869 |
0.020 |
190.170 |
0.000 |
4.585 |
0.017 |
265.143 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
5.519 |
6.593 |
1.643 |
0.125 |
2.130 |
2.760 |
1.290 |
0.336 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
3.400 |
4.318 |
1.671 |
0.145 |
6.030 |
7.052 |
1.512 |
0.156 |
|
s(day of year) |
8.459 |
8.854 |
13.413 |
0.000 |
2.885 |
3.684 |
87.786 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
8.790 |
8.963 |
10.538 |
0.000 |
3.737 |
4.609 |
17.368 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
182.357 |
218.333 |
3.864 |
0.000 |
167.144 |
205.185 |
3.484 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.079 |
|
|
|
0.099 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.094 |
|
|
|
0.115 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
12940 |
|
|
|
10880 |
|
|
|
American robin
Table 21: Results of GAMs for American robin breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
2.080 |
0.038 |
54.690 |
0.000 |
2.631 |
0.036 |
73.755 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.221 |
2.831 |
1.966 |
0.109 |
2.879 |
3.650 |
1.952 |
0.089 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.088 |
0.767 |
2.089 |
2.684 |
0.374 |
0.641 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.004 |
0.947 |
3.484 |
4.375 |
1.812 |
0.119 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.337 |
0.561 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.543 |
0.462 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
46.261 |
64.666 |
1.472 |
0.009 |
47.751 |
66.694 |
1.195 |
0.139 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.052 |
|
|
|
0.062 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.082 |
|
|
|
0.103 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
1673 |
|
|
|
1309 |
|
|
|
Mourning dove
Table 22: Results of GAMs for mourning dove breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
1.250 |
0.042 |
29.800 |
0.000 |
1.610 |
0.037 |
43.561 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.850 |
2.337 |
0.730 |
0.425 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.232 |
0.631 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.662 |
0.198 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.225 |
0.635 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.246 |
1.451 |
0.155 |
0.828 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.002 |
0.966 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.890 |
0.346 |
2.805 |
3.483 |
0.895 |
0.520 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
6.418 |
8.761 |
1.068 |
0.382 |
2.721 |
3.326 |
0.649 |
0.571 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.023 |
|
|
|
0.001 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.048 |
|
|
|
0.025 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
460 |
|
|
|
356 |
|
|
|
White-breasted nuthatch
Table 23: Results of GAMs for white-breasted nuthatch breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.995 |
0.115 |
34.639 |
0.000 |
4.463 |
0.100 |
44.610 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
6.100 |
7.213 |
1.962 |
0.069 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
6.647 |
0.010 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.435 |
0.510 |
4.280 |
5.297 |
1.222 |
0.289 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
3.487 |
0.063 |
1.094 |
1.181 |
16.442 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
5.211 |
6.294 |
2.012 |
0.061 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.156 |
0.693 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
13.279 |
17.656 |
1.211 |
0.253 |
28.379 |
33.437 |
1.918 |
0.002 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.131 |
|
|
|
0.185 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.200 |
|
|
|
0.282 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
337 |
|
|
|
301 |
|
|
|
Prothonotary warbler
Table 24: Results of GAMs for prothonotary warbler breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.482 |
0.060 |
58.167 |
0.000 |
3.922 |
0.047 |
83.076 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
8.189 |
8.802 |
3.872 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.095 |
0.758 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.922 |
2.457 |
0.698 |
0.474 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.407 |
0.524 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.181 |
2.800 |
1.536 |
0.229 |
2.296 |
2.960 |
1.793 |
0.151 |
|
s(year) |
1.794 |
2.275 |
2.799 |
0.064 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.252 |
0.264 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
17.221 |
18.651 |
3.691 |
0.000 |
17.188 |
18.650 |
4.469 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.161 |
|
|
|
0.107 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.201 |
|
|
|
0.142 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
660 |
|
|
|
581 |
|
|
|
Tufted titmouse
Table 25: Results of GAMs for tufted titmouse breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.496 |
0.067 |
52.118 |
0.000 |
4.248 |
0.059 |
72.295 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.691 |
0.194 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.966 |
0.326 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
2.152 |
0.143 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.001 |
0.977 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.737 |
3.491 |
4.600 |
0.002 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
10.620 |
0.001 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
6.707 |
0.010 |
5.009 |
6.105 |
1.727 |
0.115 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
19.217 |
26.473 |
1.347 |
0.113 |
11.401 |
15.767 |
1.674 |
0.049 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.077 |
|
|
|
0.073 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.098 |
|
|
|
0.093 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
1118 |
|
|
|
916 |
|
|
|
Carolina chickadee
Table 26: Results of GAMs for carolina chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.585 |
0.036 |
100.913 |
0.000 |
4.227 |
0.032 |
133.990 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.819 |
3.596 |
3.290 |
0.014 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.391 |
0.532 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.716 |
2.181 |
0.798 |
0.418 |
4.824 |
5.869 |
2.060 |
0.051 |
|
s(day of year) |
4.895 |
5.947 |
6.150 |
0.000 |
3.261 |
4.126 |
12.025 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
5.251 |
6.348 |
2.004 |
0.057 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.840 |
0.175 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
83.350 |
106.555 |
2.634 |
0.000 |
48.047 |
64.921 |
3.615 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.091 |
|
|
|
0.090 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.114 |
|
|
|
0.106 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
3800 |
|
|
|
3213 |
|
|
|
Mountain chickadee
Table 27: Results of GAMs for mountain chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
4.259 |
0.129 |
33.122 |
0.000 |
4.891 |
0.113 |
43.234 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
3.079 |
3.897 |
2.286 |
0.069 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.085 |
0.771 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.988 |
0.321 |
5.275 |
6.415 |
1.210 |
0.333 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.843 |
2.337 |
2.509 |
0.072 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
4.807 |
0.029 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.726 |
0.395 |
5.654 |
6.817 |
1.746 |
0.104 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
3.993 |
5.225 |
1.273 |
0.282 |
2.000 |
2.000 |
1.423 |
0.242 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.038 |
|
|
|
0.049 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.066 |
|
|
|
0.092 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
388 |
|
|
|
335 |
|
|
|
Chestnut-backed chickadee
Table 28: Results of GAMs for chestnut-backed chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
4.139 |
0.095 |
43.442 |
0.000 |
4.814 |
0.081 |
59.243 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
3.556 |
4.481 |
0.814 |
0.434 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.044 |
0.835 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.609 |
2.016 |
0.425 |
0.635 |
3.522 |
4.415 |
1.467 |
0.193 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.398 |
3.070 |
4.874 |
0.002 |
1.925 |
2.460 |
4.147 |
0.012 |
|
s(year) |
1.107 |
1.202 |
0.532 |
0.565 |
2.081 |
2.606 |
1.040 |
0.286 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
6.205 |
7.950 |
0.714 |
0.670 |
2.000 |
2.000 |
0.033 |
0.967 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.049 |
|
|
|
0.033 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.072 |
|
|
|
0.052 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
621 |
|
|
|
534 |
|
|
|
Mountain bluebird
Table 29: Results of GAMs for mountain bluebird breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.535 |
0.028 |
124.103 |
0.000 |
3.949 |
0.025 |
159.989 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
3.256 |
4.152 |
5.706 |
0.000 |
1.877 |
2.399 |
4.860 |
0.004 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
4.473 |
5.525 |
1.509 |
0.162 |
3.297 |
4.163 |
1.195 |
0.311 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.949 |
3.745 |
18.278 |
0.000 |
3.719 |
4.668 |
15.478 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
6.443 |
7.534 |
2.203 |
0.027 |
1.403 |
1.698 |
0.492 |
0.674 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
26.890 |
33.650 |
4.114 |
0.000 |
28.386 |
35.159 |
2.765 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.060 |
|
|
|
0.044 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.070 |
|
|
|
0.054 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
4138 |
|
|
|
3692 |
|
|
|
Western bluebird
Table 30: Results of GAMs for western bluebird breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.418 |
0.020 |
169.895 |
0.000 |
3.727 |
0.018 |
207.524 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
5.771 |
6.809 |
10.692 |
0.000 |
7.175 |
8.071 |
7.718 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.637 |
3.385 |
0.479 |
0.674 |
3.547 |
4.463 |
2.672 |
0.026 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.904 |
3.676 |
13.583 |
0.000 |
4.114 |
5.102 |
13.860 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.344 |
1.610 |
3.831 |
0.063 |
1.535 |
1.897 |
2.635 |
0.117 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
55.755 |
61.686 |
5.068 |
0.000 |
57.403 |
62.498 |
6.688 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.055 |
|
|
|
0.071 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.064 |
|
|
|
0.081 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
7698 |
|
|
|
7046 |
|
|
|
Violet green swallow
Table 31: Results of GAMs for violet green swallow breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
2.998 |
0.046 |
64.538 |
0.000 |
3.433 |
0.041 |
84.707 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.267 |
0.605 |
2.144 |
2.765 |
2.474 |
0.079 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.252 |
0.616 |
1.643 |
2.062 |
1.105 |
0.331 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.823 |
3.620 |
6.243 |
0.000 |
3.159 |
4.021 |
17.423 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
4.569 |
5.600 |
1.913 |
0.080 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.944 |
0.163 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
33.857 |
38.457 |
2.263 |
0.000 |
31.783 |
37.126 |
2.763 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.074 |
|
|
|
0.106 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.102 |
|
|
|
0.135 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
1401 |
|
|
|
1218 |
|
|
|
Bewick’s wren
Table 32: Results of GAMs for bewick’s wren breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
4.126 |
0.061 |
67.170 |
0.000 |
4.628 |
0.050 |
92.679 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.076 |
0.783 |
1.536 |
1.912 |
0.869 |
0.337 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.105 |
2.714 |
1.580 |
0.171 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.141 |
0.708 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.334 |
2.961 |
2.914 |
0.039 |
2.977 |
3.761 |
6.568 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
6.409 |
7.478 |
1.448 |
0.152 |
5.153 |
6.232 |
1.237 |
0.275 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
21.051 |
26.765 |
2.335 |
0.000 |
20.887 |
26.580 |
2.733 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.076 |
|
|
|
0.106 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.104 |
|
|
|
0.135 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
1108 |
|
|
|
980 |
|
|
|
Oak titmouse
Table 33: Results of GAMs for oak tit breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
4.450 |
0.101 |
44.062 |
0.000 |
5.057 |
0.086 |
58.930 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.032 |
0.857 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.021 |
0.884 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
2.467 |
0.117 |
6.757 |
7.761 |
2.227 |
0.029 |
|
s(day of year) |
3.741 |
4.700 |
3.984 |
0.002 |
2.116 |
2.695 |
2.137 |
0.140 |
|
s(year) |
1.578 |
1.949 |
0.407 |
0.621 |
7.395 |
8.320 |
2.223 |
0.023 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
5.296 |
6.738 |
3.204 |
0.003 |
2.000 |
2.000 |
2.264 |
0.105 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.063 |
|
|
|
0.064 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.084 |
|
|
|
0.101 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
562 |
|
|
|
491 |
|
|
|
Brown-headed nuthatch
Table 34: Results of GAMs for brown-headed nuthatch breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.863 |
0.108 |
35.840 |
0.000 |
4.267 |
0.093 |
45.999 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.518 |
0.219 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.074 |
0.301 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.507 |
1.872 |
0.687 |
0.567 |
1.439 |
1.770 |
5.142 |
0.005 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
14.832 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.285 |
0.258 |
|
s(year) |
1.470 |
1.794 |
0.236 |
0.751 |
1.591 |
1.952 |
0.410 |
0.652 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
2.556 |
3.030 |
2.766 |
0.042 |
9.025 |
11.507 |
1.455 |
0.145 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.056 |
|
|
|
0.096 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.077 |
|
|
|
0.138 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
338 |
|
|
|
303 |
|
|
|
Black crested titmouse
Table 35: Results of GAMs for black-crested titmouse breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
4.208 |
0.097 |
43.297 |
0.000 |
4.633 |
0.081 |
57.311 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
5.650 |
6.758 |
1.076 |
0.297 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
3.753 |
0.054 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
3.093 |
3.949 |
1.045 |
0.443 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.959 |
0.328 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
2.899 |
0.089 |
1.316 |
1.575 |
12.008 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
4.974 |
6.048 |
0.811 |
0.571 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.713 |
0.191 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
5.615 |
5.940 |
5.694 |
0.000 |
4.639 |
5.375 |
2.827 |
0.014 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.098 |
|
|
|
0.073 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.147 |
|
|
|
0.097 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
379 |
|
|
|
343 |
|
|
|
Latitudinal variation in susceptibility
Eastern bluebird
Table 36: Results of GAM for first quintile of eastern bluebird records (southernmost).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
2.820 |
0.015 |
192.883 |
0.000 |
3.247 |
0.013 |
250.236 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
6.293 |
7.253 |
2.309 |
0.020 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.041 |
0.840 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
5.200 |
6.240 |
3.929 |
0.001 |
6.072 |
7.027 |
5.506 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
7.435 |
8.337 |
21.365 |
0.000 |
5.127 |
6.228 |
43.209 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.850 |
8.486 |
7.179 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
9.288 |
0.002 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
183.939 |
231.234 |
2.821 |
0.000 |
187.577 |
235.101 |
2.998 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.111 |
|
|
|
0.113 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.126 |
|
|
|
0.130 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
12321 |
|
|
|
10662 |
|
|
|
Table 37: Results of GAM for second quintile of eastern bluebird records (20th-40th percentile southern).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.067 |
0.016 |
196.682 |
0.000 |
3.480 |
0.013 |
258.583 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
5.189 |
6.223 |
2.281 |
0.032 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.596 |
0.440 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.279 |
2.950 |
1.334 |
0.303 |
2.336 |
2.979 |
2.670 |
0.043 |
|
s(day of year) |
5.893 |
6.973 |
13.683 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
88.895 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
3.696 |
4.585 |
8.034 |
0.000 |
4.549 |
5.582 |
8.758 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
179.988 |
232.267 |
2.975 |
0.000 |
159.086 |
207.486 |
3.104 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.085 |
|
|
|
0.093 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.101 |
|
|
|
0.108 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
11363 |
|
|
|
9990 |
|
|
|
Table 38: Results of GAM for middle quintile of eastern bluebird records.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.136 |
0.017 |
189.388 |
0.000 |
3.577 |
0.014 |
253.039 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.172 |
2.768 |
1.516 |
0.156 |
2.706 |
3.451 |
2.116 |
0.086 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.583 |
3.286 |
3.079 |
0.024 |
7.258 |
8.152 |
5.109 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
43.417 |
0.000 |
4.458 |
5.554 |
20.256 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
3.544 |
4.400 |
3.507 |
0.006 |
6.864 |
7.918 |
3.410 |
0.001 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
191.519 |
246.163 |
2.357 |
0.000 |
130.161 |
172.664 |
1.888 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.067 |
|
|
|
0.062 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.085 |
|
|
|
0.077 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
10589 |
|
|
|
9244 |
|
|
|
Table 39: Results of GAM for fourth quintile of eastern bluebird records (60th-80th percentile northern).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.122 |
0.017 |
180.579 |
0.000 |
3.554 |
0.015 |
239.355 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.701 |
0.402 |
4.754 |
5.802 |
5.948 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
4.381 |
5.372 |
3.971 |
0.001 |
3.549 |
4.484 |
3.013 |
0.011 |
|
s(day of year) |
2.677 |
3.430 |
9.514 |
0.000 |
2.031 |
2.618 |
33.288 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
5.723 |
6.854 |
5.442 |
0.000 |
5.330 |
6.445 |
5.165 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
164.082 |
214.013 |
1.477 |
0.000 |
48.829 |
68.048 |
1.533 |
0.003 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.044 |
|
|
|
0.039 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.061 |
|
|
|
0.046 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
9897 |
|
|
|
8657 |
|
|
|
Table 40: Results of GAM for fifth quintile of eastern bluebird records (northernmost).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.126 |
0.019 |
168.518 |
0.000 |
3.588 |
0.016 |
224.549 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.712 |
3.462 |
3.859 |
0.009 |
3.150 |
4.015 |
9.737 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.308 |
1.554 |
2.657 |
0.140 |
6.023 |
7.125 |
8.106 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
4.240 |
5.298 |
10.651 |
0.000 |
5.488 |
6.635 |
13.543 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.959 |
8.673 |
8.107 |
0.000 |
7.948 |
8.665 |
8.557 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
125.188 |
166.158 |
2.097 |
0.000 |
121.170 |
161.006 |
1.636 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.055 |
|
|
|
0.074 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.070 |
|
|
|
0.091 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
9254 |
|
|
|
8035 |
|
|
|
Purple martin
Table 41: Results of GAM for first quintile of purple martin records (southernmost).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.046 |
0.019 |
160.286 |
0.000 |
3.408 |
0.017 |
202.103 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
5.909 |
6.849 |
4.011 |
0.000 |
6.554 |
7.430 |
2.335 |
0.020 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.057 |
0.812 |
5.192 |
6.209 |
6.292 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
6.065 |
7.134 |
37.266 |
0.000 |
5.850 |
6.964 |
22.850 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.878 |
8.646 |
2.762 |
0.009 |
7.472 |
8.393 |
1.682 |
0.074 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
123.961 |
155.349 |
2.728 |
0.000 |
138.105 |
169.578 |
2.752 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.112 |
|
|
|
0.113 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.129 |
|
|
|
0.135 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
7332 |
|
|
|
6551 |
|
|
|
Table 42: Results of GAM for second quintile of purple martin records (20th-40th percentile southern).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.408 |
0.018 |
185.896 |
0.000 |
3.647 |
0.016 |
224.472 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.415 |
3.065 |
8.667 |
0.000 |
5.446 |
6.477 |
5.315 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.179 |
2.800 |
3.707 |
0.021 |
3.484 |
4.337 |
2.471 |
0.038 |
|
s(day of year) |
3.156 |
4.075 |
67.519 |
0.000 |
3.279 |
4.231 |
42.700 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
4.522 |
5.556 |
3.325 |
0.004 |
4.105 |
5.076 |
1.506 |
0.191 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
144.210 |
179.756 |
2.265 |
0.000 |
132.201 |
167.348 |
2.219 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.136 |
|
|
|
0.132 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.157 |
|
|
|
0.153 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
6573 |
|
|
|
6143 |
|
|
|
Table 43: Results of GAM for middle quintile of purple martin records.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.521 |
0.019 |
187.647 |
0.000 |
3.736 |
0.017 |
225.665 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.990 |
3.817 |
12.017 |
0.000 |
7.916 |
8.272 |
6.352 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.596 |
3.347 |
0.963 |
0.388 |
7.119 |
7.746 |
4.233 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
6.792 |
7.811 |
32.730 |
0.000 |
2.811 |
3.668 |
53.736 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.826 |
8.619 |
4.274 |
0.000 |
5.455 |
6.593 |
2.358 |
0.019 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
152.043 |
186.383 |
2.511 |
0.000 |
161.455 |
194.977 |
2.699 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.173 |
|
|
|
0.189 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.197 |
|
|
|
0.215 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
5997 |
|
|
|
5653 |
|
|
|
Table 44: Results of GAM for fourth quintile of purple martin records (60th-80th percentile northern).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.559 |
0.020 |
180.724 |
0.000 |
3.739 |
0.018 |
207.512 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
29.055 |
0.000 |
4.729 |
5.726 |
6.789 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
4.201 |
0.040 |
3.064 |
3.887 |
6.339 |
0.000 |
|
s(day of year) |
6.682 |
7.760 |
45.175 |
0.000 |
6.081 |
7.239 |
38.614 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
8.204 |
8.814 |
4.850 |
0.000 |
7.846 |
8.632 |
4.024 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
156.594 |
186.685 |
3.577 |
0.000 |
154.767 |
185.079 |
3.095 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.193 |
|
|
|
0.191 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.219 |
|
|
|
0.219 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
5493 |
|
|
|
5228 |
|
|
|
Table 45: Results of GAM for fifth quintile of purple martin records (northernmost).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.652 |
0.021 |
170.307 |
0.000 |
3.837 |
0.020 |
195.624 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.691 |
3.417 |
19.849 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
1.001 |
30.600 |
0.000 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
6.450 |
7.515 |
1.544 |
0.143 |
6.373 |
7.474 |
2.037 |
0.043 |
|
s(day of year) |
8.253 |
8.823 |
46.562 |
0.000 |
8.126 |
8.764 |
46.470 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
7.759 |
8.575 |
4.675 |
0.000 |
7.781 |
8.588 |
3.913 |
0.000 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
134.889 |
157.226 |
3.210 |
0.000 |
136.554 |
158.566 |
3.067 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.160 |
|
|
|
0.159 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.187 |
|
|
|
0.186 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
5061 |
|
|
|
4817 |
|
|
|
Tree swallow
Table 46: Results of GAM for first quintile of tree swallow records (southernmost).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.373 |
0.022 |
150.403 |
0.000 |
3.789 |
0.020 |
190.237 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.759 |
3.522 |
3.311 |
0.014 |
3.839 |
4.806 |
2.240 |
0.050 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.173 |
2.796 |
1.405 |
0.189 |
3.861 |
4.862 |
1.732 |
0.125 |
|
s(day of year) |
4.036 |
5.015 |
30.101 |
0.000 |
3.462 |
4.372 |
32.074 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.001 |
0.343 |
0.558 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
1.304 |
0.253 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
153.911 |
189.819 |
2.800 |
0.000 |
169.758 |
206.527 |
2.725 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.090 |
|
|
|
0.101 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.111 |
|
|
|
0.128 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
6878 |
|
|
|
6103 |
|
|
|
Table 47: Results of GAM for second quintile of tree swallow records (20th-40th percentile southern).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.420 |
0.023 |
151.304 |
0.000 |
3.814 |
0.020 |
193.378 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.994 |
3.805 |
3.462 |
0.009 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
3.918 |
0.048 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
0.830 |
0.362 |
5.348 |
6.404 |
2.057 |
0.047 |
|
s(day of year) |
7.917 |
8.631 |
23.837 |
0.000 |
3.831 |
4.808 |
28.405 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.000 |
8.679 |
0.003 |
1.000 |
1.000 |
4.634 |
0.031 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
110.413 |
142.171 |
2.592 |
0.000 |
103.135 |
133.837 |
2.807 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.093 |
|
|
|
0.097 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.111 |
|
|
|
0.116 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
6169 |
|
|
|
5511 |
|
|
|
Table 48: Results of GAM for middle quintile of tree swallow records.
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.425 |
0.024 |
143.243 |
0.000 |
3.826 |
0.021 |
180.979 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.338 |
3.007 |
2.628 |
0.048 |
1.935 |
2.482 |
1.507 |
0.260 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
2.452 |
3.155 |
2.278 |
0.076 |
2.304 |
2.989 |
0.955 |
0.397 |
|
s(day of year) |
5.023 |
6.093 |
39.924 |
0.000 |
3.917 |
4.901 |
26.385 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.486 |
1.819 |
1.623 |
0.281 |
3.633 |
4.499 |
1.499 |
0.217 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
146.793 |
179.621 |
2.260 |
0.000 |
145.835 |
177.751 |
2.479 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.112 |
|
|
|
0.110 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.137 |
|
|
|
0.138 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
5679 |
|
|
|
5063 |
|
|
|
Table 49: Results of GAM for fourth quintile of tree swallow records (60th-80th percentile northern).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.270 |
0.026 |
127.233 |
0.000 |
3.763 |
0.023 |
166.406 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
3.902 |
4.888 |
3.661 |
0.003 |
2.769 |
3.539 |
1.760 |
0.112 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
3.151 |
4.010 |
2.137 |
0.073 |
1.000 |
1.001 |
0.075 |
0.784 |
|
s(day of year) |
5.433 |
6.547 |
20.010 |
0.000 |
2.854 |
3.653 |
23.493 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.000 |
1.001 |
10.746 |
0.001 |
6.689 |
7.641 |
2.817 |
0.008 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
139.756 |
174.878 |
3.364 |
0.000 |
132.570 |
167.216 |
3.859 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.122 |
|
|
|
0.145 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.147 |
|
|
|
0.172 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
5330 |
|
|
|
4605 |
|
|
|
Table 50: Results of GAM for fifth quintile of tree swallow records (northernmost).
|
|
|
Incubation |
|
|
|
Provisioning |
|
|
| A. Parametric coefficients |
|
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
estimate |
std. error |
t-value |
p-value |
|
intercept |
3.427 |
0.029 |
119.323 |
0.000 |
4.053 |
0.025 |
159.812 |
0.000 |
| B. Smooth terms |
|
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
edf |
ref.df |
f-value |
p-value |
|
s(coldest 3-days) |
2.647 |
3.390 |
10.766 |
0.000 |
2.173 |
2.796 |
6.126 |
0.001 |
|
s(hottest 3-days) |
1.279 |
1.508 |
0.083 |
0.801 |
1.000 |
1.001 |
3.380 |
0.066 |
|
s(day of year) |
6.127 |
7.237 |
14.390 |
0.000 |
2.375 |
3.045 |
33.963 |
0.000 |
|
s(year) |
1.997 |
2.494 |
5.289 |
0.003 |
5.353 |
6.471 |
3.701 |
0.001 |
|
s(longitude, latitude) |
150.113 |
183.505 |
3.997 |
0.000 |
124.499 |
157.001 |
4.494 |
0.000 |
| Adjusted r-squared |
|
0.149 |
|
|
|
0.158 |
|
|
|
| Deviance explained |
|
0.177 |
|
|
|
0.185 |
|
|
|
| n |
|
5009 |
|
|
|
4212 |
|
|
|