This document includes full model tables and summaries to accompany Taff & Shipley. Please see the paper for descriptions of output.

Climate models

Several GAMs were fit to explore changes in average temperature anomaly and the timing of cold-snaps and heat-waves. See manuscript for descriptions of models.

Time series for spring temperature anomaly

Table 1: Results of the GAM for time series of spring temperature anomly for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 0.160 0.006 28.957 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 18.675 23.598 20.609 0.000
s(year) 8.936 8.999 381.290 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.117
Deviance explained 0.118
n 29593

Time series for cold-snap anomaly

Table 2: Results of the GAM for time series of first cold-snap timing with a temperature threshold of 18.5C for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -1.539 0.118 -13.047 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 22.486 26.637 28.116 0.000
s(year) 7.691 8.565 29.269 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.035
Deviance explained 0.036
n 27158
Table 3: Results of the GAM for time series of first cold-snap timing with a temperature threshold of 16C for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -0.851 0.099 -8.555 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 19.246 24.099 20.116 0.000
s(year) 8.575 8.948 20.724 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.024
Deviance explained 0.025
n 26916
Table 4: Results of the GAM for time series of first cold-snap timing with a temperature threshold of 13C for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -1.116 0.090 -12.449 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 22.240 26.479 15.750 0.000
s(year) 8.715 8.976 21.706 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.022
Deviance explained 0.024
n 26447

Time series for heat-wave anomaly

Table 5: Results of the GAM for time series of last heat-wave timing with a temperature threshold of 26C for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -0.778 0.121 -6.453 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 8.545 8.941 13.580 0.000
s(year) 21.409 25.869 13.131 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.017
Deviance explained 0.018
n 27259
Table 6: Results of the GAM for time series of last heat-wave timing with a temperature threshold of 31C for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -0.348 0.127 -2.739 0.006
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 24.413 27.771 18.124 0.000
s(year) 8.408 8.902 17.011 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.024
Deviance explained 0.025
n 27259
Table 7: Results of the GAM for time series of last heat-wave timing with a temperature threshold of 36C for each grid cell.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -1.098 0.117 -9.411 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(longitude, latitude) 8.660 49.398 8.660 49.398
s(year) 8.967 0.000 8.967 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.016
Deviance explained 0.017
n 27101

Average temperature anomaly compared to cold-snap anomaly

Table 8: Average temperature anomaly compared to average cold-snap anomaly for each grid cell. Averages include years from 1995-2020.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -2.382 0.382 -6.244 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(average anomaly) 1.000 1.000 1.491 0.223
s(longitude, latitude) 14.709 19.515 9.330 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.407
Deviance explained 0.441
n 281

Average Temperature anomaly compared to heat-wave anomaly

Table 9: Average temperature anomaly compared to average heat-wave anomaly for each grid cell. Averages include years from 1995-2020.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -0.705 0.352 -2.002 0.046
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(average anomaly) 4.324 5.329 1.356 0.229
s(longitude, latitude) 17.234 22.037 2.940 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.358
Deviance explained 0.407
n 282

Grid temperature compared to cold-snap

Table 10: Spring temperature anomaly compared to timing of last cold-snap for each grid and year combination.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -2.340 0.209 -11.217 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(spring anomaly) 1.460 1.798 288.652 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 22.837 26.870 25.726 0.000
s(year) 3.768 4.660 19.980 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.164
Deviance explained 0.168
n 7221

Grid temperature compared to heat-wave

Table 11: Spring temperature anomaly compared to timing of last heat-wave for each grid and year combination.
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept -0.742 0.219 -3.395 0.001
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(spring anomaly) 5.099 6.252 165.984 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 22.601 26.712 10.025 0.000
s(year) 1.230 1.423 8.964 0.001
Adjusted r-squared 0.170
Deviance explained 0.174
n 7247

Species susceptibility to temperature extremes

One model was fit for each of 24 species using incubation measures and a second model was fit using provisioning measures. The two models for each species are combined into one table per species. Plots are included showing the relationship between relative fitness, coldest three day period, and hottest three day period for each species during incubation and provisioning.

Northern cardinal

Table 12: Results of GAMs for northern cardinal breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 1.293 0.059 21.779 0.000 1.726 0.066 26.017 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.072 0.789 4.847 5.936 1.824 0.096
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.927 0.336 1.000 1.000 0.370 0.543
s(day of year) 3.744 4.653 3.801 0.003 3.701 4.606 2.427 0.043
s(year) 3.271 4.037 1.953 0.106 3.212 3.964 1.387 0.259
s(longitude, latitude) 31.044 43.007 1.221 0.168 15.946 22.586 1.264 0.192
Adjusted r-squared 0.139 0.131
Deviance explained 0.217 0.207
n 442 330
Contour plots from GAM fits for northern cardinal breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 1: Contour plots from GAM fits for northern cardinal breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

House finch

Table 13: Results of GAMs for house finch breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.004 0.080 37.588 0.000 3.596 0.070 51.348 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 1.067 0.302 1.400 1.714 1.002 0.466
s(hottest 3-days) 2.059 2.642 1.280 0.226 1.000 1.000 2.922 0.088
s(day of year) 2.037 2.571 0.965 0.483 1.000 1.000 0.324 0.569
s(year) 1.000 1.000 0.114 0.736 4.052 4.959 0.855 0.487
s(longitude, latitude) 11.613 16.388 1.201 0.261 2.000 2.000 0.421 0.656
Adjusted r-squared 0.047 0.009
Deviance explained 0.078 0.029
n 545 453
Contour plots from GAM fits for house finch breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 2: Contour plots from GAM fits for house finch breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Barn swallow

Table 14: Results of GAMs for barn swallow breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.289 0.068 48.061 0.000 3.663 0.059 62.123 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 3.818 4.758 2.924 0.016 2.258 2.886 2.211 0.092
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 1.461 0.227 1.000 1.000 0.079 0.778
s(day of year) 2.479 3.156 1.749 0.160 2.442 3.120 4.063 0.006
s(year) 1.000 1.000 2.932 0.087 1.000 1.000 4.096 0.043
s(longitude, latitude) 10.213 14.140 1.700 0.050 5.639 7.848 2.139 0.033
Adjusted r-squared 0.066 0.080
Deviance explained 0.094 0.101
n 624 560
Contour plots from GAM fits for barn swallow breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 3: Contour plots from GAM fits for barn swallow breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Black-capped chickadee

Table 15: Results of GAMs for black-capped chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.704 0.053 69.972 0.000 4.681 0.048 97.385 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.261 0.610 1.000 1.000 0.176 0.675
s(hottest 3-days) 5.591 6.677 1.645 0.097 1.977 2.523 1.837 0.135
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 7.322 0.007 1.000 1.000 16.832 0.000
s(year) 1.000 1.000 5.922 0.015 1.000 1.000 1.382 0.240
s(longitude, latitude) 91.253 119.319 1.488 0.001 66.170 88.890 1.620 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.068 0.074
Deviance explained 0.105 0.108
n 2492 1965
Contour plots from GAM fits for black-capped chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 4: Contour plots from GAM fits for black-capped chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Purple martin

Table 16: Results of GAMs for purple martin breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.411 0.009 385.509 0.000 3.659 0.008 461.687 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 6.848 7.639 23.111 0.000 7.193 7.969 15.109 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 3.053 3.897 2.132 0.070 8.869 8.989 16.633 0.000
s(day of year) 7.690 8.437 270.406 0.000 7.822 8.546 219.874 0.000
s(year) 7.827 8.637 7.924 0.000 8.057 8.758 5.650 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 162.179 176.511 10.206 0.000 168.009 178.692 9.110 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.135 0.131
Deviance explained 0.141 0.137
n 30456 28392
Contour plots from GAM fits for purple martin breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 5: Contour plots from GAM fits for purple martin breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Eastern phoebe

Table 17: Results of GAMs for eastern phoebe breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.091 0.063 49.404 0.000 3.501 0.056 63.041 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 6.170 7.309 1.531 0.153 2.789 3.568 3.838 0.006
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.118 0.731 1.000 1.000 1.402 0.237
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 0.287 0.592 1.799 2.265 3.246 0.040
s(year) 1.191 1.350 0.167 0.827 4.899 5.905 1.061 0.438
s(longitude, latitude) 5.735 8.013 1.612 0.116 4.021 5.406 3.822 0.002
Adjusted r-squared 0.021 0.056
Deviance explained 0.038 0.074
n 867 762
Contour plots from GAM fits for eastern phoebe breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 6: Contour plots from GAM fits for eastern phoebe breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Eastern bluebird

Table 18: Results of GAMs for eastern bluebird breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.044 0.007 413.527 0.000 3.478 0.006 547.030 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 6.694 7.636 10.732 0.000 5.681 6.707 15.695 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 7.533 8.248 12.619 0.000 8.650 8.939 16.679 0.000
s(day of year) 8.024 8.687 38.932 0.000 6.838 7.802 80.178 0.000
s(year) 7.647 8.303 17.758 0.000 7.544 8.232 17.686 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 339.793 388.196 6.013 0.000 311.001 366.861 5.628 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.071 0.081
Deviance explained 0.077 0.088
n 53424 46588
Contour plots from GAM fits for eastern bluebird breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 7: Contour plots from GAM fits for eastern bluebird breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Tree swallow

Table 19: Results of GAMs for tree swallow breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.384 0.011 306.167 0.000 3.841 0.010 395.828 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 5.430 6.461 17.419 0.000 2.656 3.430 4.719 0.002
s(hottest 3-days) 2.846 3.656 3.089 0.021 7.624 8.407 4.083 0.000
s(day of year) 8.121 8.723 96.329 0.000 5.572 6.578 97.729 0.000
s(year) 1.584 1.965 9.911 0.000 7.266 8.181 3.938 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 269.711 304.006 7.358 0.000 258.269 296.635 8.399 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.096 0.111
Deviance explained 0.105 0.121
n 29065 25494
Contour plots from GAM fits for tree swallow breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 8: Contour plots from GAM fits for tree swallow breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

House wren

Table 20: Results of GAMs for house wren breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.869 0.020 190.170 0.000 4.585 0.017 265.143 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 5.519 6.593 1.643 0.125 2.130 2.760 1.290 0.336
s(hottest 3-days) 3.400 4.318 1.671 0.145 6.030 7.052 1.512 0.156
s(day of year) 8.459 8.854 13.413 0.000 2.885 3.684 87.786 0.000
s(year) 8.790 8.963 10.538 0.000 3.737 4.609 17.368 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 182.357 218.333 3.864 0.000 167.144 205.185 3.484 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.079 0.099
Deviance explained 0.094 0.115
n 12940 10880
Contour plots from GAM fits for house wren breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 9: Contour plots from GAM fits for house wren breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

American robin

Table 21: Results of GAMs for American robin breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 2.080 0.038 54.690 0.000 2.631 0.036 73.755 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.221 2.831 1.966 0.109 2.879 3.650 1.952 0.089
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.088 0.767 2.089 2.684 0.374 0.641
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 0.004 0.947 3.484 4.375 1.812 0.119
s(year) 1.000 1.000 0.337 0.561 1.000 1.000 0.543 0.462
s(longitude, latitude) 46.261 64.666 1.472 0.009 47.751 66.694 1.195 0.139
Adjusted r-squared 0.052 0.062
Deviance explained 0.082 0.103
n 1673 1309
Contour plots from GAM fits for American robin breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 10: Contour plots from GAM fits for American robin breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Mourning dove

Table 22: Results of GAMs for mourning dove breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 1.250 0.042 29.800 0.000 1.610 0.037 43.561 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.850 2.337 0.730 0.425 1.000 1.000 0.232 0.631
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 1.662 0.198 1.000 1.000 0.225 0.635
s(day of year) 1.246 1.451 0.155 0.828 1.000 1.000 0.002 0.966
s(year) 1.000 1.000 0.890 0.346 2.805 3.483 0.895 0.520
s(longitude, latitude) 6.418 8.761 1.068 0.382 2.721 3.326 0.649 0.571
Adjusted r-squared 0.023 0.001
Deviance explained 0.048 0.025
n 460 356
Contour plots from GAM fits for mourning dove breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 11: Contour plots from GAM fits for mourning dove breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

White-breasted nuthatch

Table 23: Results of GAMs for white-breasted nuthatch breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.995 0.115 34.639 0.000 4.463 0.100 44.610 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 6.100 7.213 1.962 0.069 1.000 1.000 6.647 0.010
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.435 0.510 4.280 5.297 1.222 0.289
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 3.487 0.063 1.094 1.181 16.442 0.000
s(year) 5.211 6.294 2.012 0.061 1.000 1.000 0.156 0.693
s(longitude, latitude) 13.279 17.656 1.211 0.253 28.379 33.437 1.918 0.002
Adjusted r-squared 0.131 0.185
Deviance explained 0.200 0.282
n 337 301
Contour plots from GAM fits for white-breasted nuthatch breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 12: Contour plots from GAM fits for white-breasted nuthatch breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Prothonotary warbler

Table 24: Results of GAMs for prothonotary warbler breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.482 0.060 58.167 0.000 3.922 0.047 83.076 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 8.189 8.802 3.872 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.095 0.758
s(hottest 3-days) 1.922 2.457 0.698 0.474 1.000 1.000 0.407 0.524
s(day of year) 2.181 2.800 1.536 0.229 2.296 2.960 1.793 0.151
s(year) 1.794 2.275 2.799 0.064 1.000 1.000 1.252 0.264
s(longitude, latitude) 17.221 18.651 3.691 0.000 17.188 18.650 4.469 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.161 0.107
Deviance explained 0.201 0.142
n 660 581
Contour plots from GAM fits for prothonotary warbler breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 13: Contour plots from GAM fits for prothonotary warbler breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Tufted titmouse

Table 25: Results of GAMs for tufted titmouse breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.496 0.067 52.118 0.000 4.248 0.059 72.295 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 1.691 0.194 1.000 1.000 0.966 0.326
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 2.152 0.143 1.000 1.000 0.001 0.977
s(day of year) 2.737 3.491 4.600 0.002 1.000 1.000 10.620 0.001
s(year) 1.000 1.000 6.707 0.010 5.009 6.105 1.727 0.115
s(longitude, latitude) 19.217 26.473 1.347 0.113 11.401 15.767 1.674 0.049
Adjusted r-squared 0.077 0.073
Deviance explained 0.098 0.093
n 1118 916
Contour plots from GAM fits for tufted titmouse breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 14: Contour plots from GAM fits for tufted titmouse breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Carolina chickadee

Table 26: Results of GAMs for carolina chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.585 0.036 100.913 0.000 4.227 0.032 133.990 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.819 3.596 3.290 0.014 1.000 1.000 0.391 0.532
s(hottest 3-days) 1.716 2.181 0.798 0.418 4.824 5.869 2.060 0.051
s(day of year) 4.895 5.947 6.150 0.000 3.261 4.126 12.025 0.000
s(year) 5.251 6.348 2.004 0.057 1.000 1.000 1.840 0.175
s(longitude, latitude) 83.350 106.555 2.634 0.000 48.047 64.921 3.615 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.091 0.090
Deviance explained 0.114 0.106
n 3800 3213
Contour plots from GAM fits for carolina chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 15: Contour plots from GAM fits for carolina chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Mountain chickadee

Table 27: Results of GAMs for mountain chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 4.259 0.129 33.122 0.000 4.891 0.113 43.234 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 3.079 3.897 2.286 0.069 1.000 1.000 0.085 0.771
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.988 0.321 5.275 6.415 1.210 0.333
s(day of year) 1.843 2.337 2.509 0.072 1.000 1.000 4.807 0.029
s(year) 1.000 1.000 0.726 0.395 5.654 6.817 1.746 0.104
s(longitude, latitude) 3.993 5.225 1.273 0.282 2.000 2.000 1.423 0.242
Adjusted r-squared 0.038 0.049
Deviance explained 0.066 0.092
n 388 335
Contour plots from GAM fits for mountain chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 16: Contour plots from GAM fits for mountain chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Chestnut-backed chickadee

Table 28: Results of GAMs for chestnut-backed chickadee breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 4.139 0.095 43.442 0.000 4.814 0.081 59.243 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 3.556 4.481 0.814 0.434 1.000 1.000 0.044 0.835
s(hottest 3-days) 1.609 2.016 0.425 0.635 3.522 4.415 1.467 0.193
s(day of year) 2.398 3.070 4.874 0.002 1.925 2.460 4.147 0.012
s(year) 1.107 1.202 0.532 0.565 2.081 2.606 1.040 0.286
s(longitude, latitude) 6.205 7.950 0.714 0.670 2.000 2.000 0.033 0.967
Adjusted r-squared 0.049 0.033
Deviance explained 0.072 0.052
n 621 534
Contour plots from GAM fits for chestnut-backed chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 17: Contour plots from GAM fits for chestnut-backed chickadee breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Mountain bluebird

Table 29: Results of GAMs for mountain bluebird breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.535 0.028 124.103 0.000 3.949 0.025 159.989 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 3.256 4.152 5.706 0.000 1.877 2.399 4.860 0.004
s(hottest 3-days) 4.473 5.525 1.509 0.162 3.297 4.163 1.195 0.311
s(day of year) 2.949 3.745 18.278 0.000 3.719 4.668 15.478 0.000
s(year) 6.443 7.534 2.203 0.027 1.403 1.698 0.492 0.674
s(longitude, latitude) 26.890 33.650 4.114 0.000 28.386 35.159 2.765 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.060 0.044
Deviance explained 0.070 0.054
n 4138 3692
Contour plots from GAM fits for mountain bluebird breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 18: Contour plots from GAM fits for mountain bluebird breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Western bluebird

Table 30: Results of GAMs for western bluebird breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.418 0.020 169.895 0.000 3.727 0.018 207.524 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 5.771 6.809 10.692 0.000 7.175 8.071 7.718 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 2.637 3.385 0.479 0.674 3.547 4.463 2.672 0.026
s(day of year) 2.904 3.676 13.583 0.000 4.114 5.102 13.860 0.000
s(year) 1.344 1.610 3.831 0.063 1.535 1.897 2.635 0.117
s(longitude, latitude) 55.755 61.686 5.068 0.000 57.403 62.498 6.688 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.055 0.071
Deviance explained 0.064 0.081
n 7698 7046
Contour plots from GAM fits for western bluebird breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 19: Contour plots from GAM fits for western bluebird breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Violet green swallow

Table 31: Results of GAMs for violet green swallow breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 2.998 0.046 64.538 0.000 3.433 0.041 84.707 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.267 0.605 2.144 2.765 2.474 0.079
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.252 0.616 1.643 2.062 1.105 0.331
s(day of year) 2.823 3.620 6.243 0.000 3.159 4.021 17.423 0.000
s(year) 4.569 5.600 1.913 0.080 1.000 1.000 1.944 0.163
s(longitude, latitude) 33.857 38.457 2.263 0.000 31.783 37.126 2.763 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.074 0.106
Deviance explained 0.102 0.135
n 1401 1218
Contour plots from GAM fits for violet green swallow breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 20: Contour plots from GAM fits for violet green swallow breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Bewick’s wren

Table 32: Results of GAMs for bewick’s wren breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 4.126 0.061 67.170 0.000 4.628 0.050 92.679 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.076 0.783 1.536 1.912 0.869 0.337
s(hottest 3-days) 2.105 2.714 1.580 0.171 1.000 1.000 0.141 0.708
s(day of year) 2.334 2.961 2.914 0.039 2.977 3.761 6.568 0.000
s(year) 6.409 7.478 1.448 0.152 5.153 6.232 1.237 0.275
s(longitude, latitude) 21.051 26.765 2.335 0.000 20.887 26.580 2.733 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.076 0.106
Deviance explained 0.104 0.135
n 1108 980
Contour plots from GAM fits for bewick's wren breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 21: Contour plots from GAM fits for bewick’s wren breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Oak titmouse

Table 33: Results of GAMs for oak tit breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 4.450 0.101 44.062 0.000 5.057 0.086 58.930 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.032 0.857 1.000 1.000 0.021 0.884
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 2.467 0.117 6.757 7.761 2.227 0.029
s(day of year) 3.741 4.700 3.984 0.002 2.116 2.695 2.137 0.140
s(year) 1.578 1.949 0.407 0.621 7.395 8.320 2.223 0.023
s(longitude, latitude) 5.296 6.738 3.204 0.003 2.000 2.000 2.264 0.105
Adjusted r-squared 0.063 0.064
Deviance explained 0.084 0.101
n 562 491
Contour plots from GAM fits for oak titmouse breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 22: Contour plots from GAM fits for oak titmouse breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Brown-headed nuthatch

Table 34: Results of GAMs for brown-headed nuthatch breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.863 0.108 35.840 0.000 4.267 0.093 45.999 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 1.518 0.219 1.000 1.000 1.074 0.301
s(hottest 3-days) 1.507 1.872 0.687 0.567 1.439 1.770 5.142 0.005
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 14.832 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.285 0.258
s(year) 1.470 1.794 0.236 0.751 1.591 1.952 0.410 0.652
s(longitude, latitude) 2.556 3.030 2.766 0.042 9.025 11.507 1.455 0.145
Adjusted r-squared 0.056 0.096
Deviance explained 0.077 0.138
n 338 303
Contour plots from GAM fits for brown-headed nuthatch breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 23: Contour plots from GAM fits for brown-headed nuthatch breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Black crested titmouse

Table 35: Results of GAMs for black-crested titmouse breeding records during incubation and provisioning.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 4.208 0.097 43.297 0.000 4.633 0.081 57.311 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 5.650 6.758 1.076 0.297 1.000 1.000 3.753 0.054
s(hottest 3-days) 3.093 3.949 1.045 0.443 1.000 1.000 0.959 0.328
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 2.899 0.089 1.316 1.575 12.008 0.000
s(year) 4.974 6.048 0.811 0.571 1.000 1.000 1.713 0.191
s(longitude, latitude) 5.615 5.940 5.694 0.000 4.639 5.375 2.827 0.014
Adjusted r-squared 0.098 0.073
Deviance explained 0.147 0.097
n 379 343
Contour plots from GAM fits for black crested titmouse breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Figure 24: Contour plots from GAM fits for black crested titmouse breeding during (A) incubation and (B) provisioning. Contour lines and colors indicate relative fitness where average fitness across all records included in the model equals one. White areas of the plot did not have any observed data.

Latitudinal variation in susceptibility

Eastern bluebird

Table 36: Results of GAM for first quintile of eastern bluebird records (southernmost).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 2.820 0.015 192.883 0.000 3.247 0.013 250.236 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 6.293 7.253 2.309 0.020 1.000 1.000 0.041 0.840
s(hottest 3-days) 5.200 6.240 3.929 0.001 6.072 7.027 5.506 0.000
s(day of year) 7.435 8.337 21.365 0.000 5.127 6.228 43.209 0.000
s(year) 7.850 8.486 7.179 0.000 1.000 1.000 9.288 0.002
s(longitude, latitude) 183.939 231.234 2.821 0.000 187.577 235.101 2.998 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.111 0.113
Deviance explained 0.126 0.130
n 12321 10662
Table 37: Results of GAM for second quintile of eastern bluebird records (20th-40th percentile southern).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.067 0.016 196.682 0.000 3.480 0.013 258.583 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 5.189 6.223 2.281 0.032 1.000 1.000 0.596 0.440
s(hottest 3-days) 2.279 2.950 1.334 0.303 2.336 2.979 2.670 0.043
s(day of year) 5.893 6.973 13.683 0.000 1.000 1.000 88.895 0.000
s(year) 3.696 4.585 8.034 0.000 4.549 5.582 8.758 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 179.988 232.267 2.975 0.000 159.086 207.486 3.104 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.085 0.093
Deviance explained 0.101 0.108
n 11363 9990
Table 38: Results of GAM for middle quintile of eastern bluebird records.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.136 0.017 189.388 0.000 3.577 0.014 253.039 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.172 2.768 1.516 0.156 2.706 3.451 2.116 0.086
s(hottest 3-days) 2.583 3.286 3.079 0.024 7.258 8.152 5.109 0.000
s(day of year) 1.000 1.000 43.417 0.000 4.458 5.554 20.256 0.000
s(year) 3.544 4.400 3.507 0.006 6.864 7.918 3.410 0.001
s(longitude, latitude) 191.519 246.163 2.357 0.000 130.161 172.664 1.888 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.067 0.062
Deviance explained 0.085 0.077
n 10589 9244
Table 39: Results of GAM for fourth quintile of eastern bluebird records (60th-80th percentile northern).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.122 0.017 180.579 0.000 3.554 0.015 239.355 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.701 0.402 4.754 5.802 5.948 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 4.381 5.372 3.971 0.001 3.549 4.484 3.013 0.011
s(day of year) 2.677 3.430 9.514 0.000 2.031 2.618 33.288 0.000
s(year) 5.723 6.854 5.442 0.000 5.330 6.445 5.165 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 164.082 214.013 1.477 0.000 48.829 68.048 1.533 0.003
Adjusted r-squared 0.044 0.039
Deviance explained 0.061 0.046
n 9897 8657
Table 40: Results of GAM for fifth quintile of eastern bluebird records (northernmost).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.126 0.019 168.518 0.000 3.588 0.016 224.549 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.712 3.462 3.859 0.009 3.150 4.015 9.737 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 1.308 1.554 2.657 0.140 6.023 7.125 8.106 0.000
s(day of year) 4.240 5.298 10.651 0.000 5.488 6.635 13.543 0.000
s(year) 7.959 8.673 8.107 0.000 7.948 8.665 8.557 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 125.188 166.158 2.097 0.000 121.170 161.006 1.636 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.055 0.074
Deviance explained 0.070 0.091
n 9254 8035

Purple martin

Table 41: Results of GAM for first quintile of purple martin records (southernmost).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.046 0.019 160.286 0.000 3.408 0.017 202.103 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 5.909 6.849 4.011 0.000 6.554 7.430 2.335 0.020
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.057 0.812 5.192 6.209 6.292 0.000
s(day of year) 6.065 7.134 37.266 0.000 5.850 6.964 22.850 0.000
s(year) 7.878 8.646 2.762 0.009 7.472 8.393 1.682 0.074
s(longitude, latitude) 123.961 155.349 2.728 0.000 138.105 169.578 2.752 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.112 0.113
Deviance explained 0.129 0.135
n 7332 6551
Table 42: Results of GAM for second quintile of purple martin records (20th-40th percentile southern).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.408 0.018 185.896 0.000 3.647 0.016 224.472 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.415 3.065 8.667 0.000 5.446 6.477 5.315 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 2.179 2.800 3.707 0.021 3.484 4.337 2.471 0.038
s(day of year) 3.156 4.075 67.519 0.000 3.279 4.231 42.700 0.000
s(year) 4.522 5.556 3.325 0.004 4.105 5.076 1.506 0.191
s(longitude, latitude) 144.210 179.756 2.265 0.000 132.201 167.348 2.219 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.136 0.132
Deviance explained 0.157 0.153
n 6573 6143
Table 43: Results of GAM for middle quintile of purple martin records.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.521 0.019 187.647 0.000 3.736 0.017 225.665 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.990 3.817 12.017 0.000 7.916 8.272 6.352 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 2.596 3.347 0.963 0.388 7.119 7.746 4.233 0.000
s(day of year) 6.792 7.811 32.730 0.000 2.811 3.668 53.736 0.000
s(year) 7.826 8.619 4.274 0.000 5.455 6.593 2.358 0.019
s(longitude, latitude) 152.043 186.383 2.511 0.000 161.455 194.977 2.699 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.173 0.189
Deviance explained 0.197 0.215
n 5997 5653
Table 44: Results of GAM for fourth quintile of purple martin records (60th-80th percentile northern).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.559 0.020 180.724 0.000 3.739 0.018 207.512 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 29.055 0.000 4.729 5.726 6.789 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 4.201 0.040 3.064 3.887 6.339 0.000
s(day of year) 6.682 7.760 45.175 0.000 6.081 7.239 38.614 0.000
s(year) 8.204 8.814 4.850 0.000 7.846 8.632 4.024 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 156.594 186.685 3.577 0.000 154.767 185.079 3.095 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.193 0.191
Deviance explained 0.219 0.219
n 5493 5228
Table 45: Results of GAM for fifth quintile of purple martin records (northernmost).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.652 0.021 170.307 0.000 3.837 0.020 195.624 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.691 3.417 19.849 0.000 1.000 1.001 30.600 0.000
s(hottest 3-days) 6.450 7.515 1.544 0.143 6.373 7.474 2.037 0.043
s(day of year) 8.253 8.823 46.562 0.000 8.126 8.764 46.470 0.000
s(year) 7.759 8.575 4.675 0.000 7.781 8.588 3.913 0.000
s(longitude, latitude) 134.889 157.226 3.210 0.000 136.554 158.566 3.067 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.160 0.159
Deviance explained 0.187 0.186
n 5061 4817

Tree swallow

Table 46: Results of GAM for first quintile of tree swallow records (southernmost).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.373 0.022 150.403 0.000 3.789 0.020 190.237 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.759 3.522 3.311 0.014 3.839 4.806 2.240 0.050
s(hottest 3-days) 2.173 2.796 1.405 0.189 3.861 4.862 1.732 0.125
s(day of year) 4.036 5.015 30.101 0.000 3.462 4.372 32.074 0.000
s(year) 1.000 1.001 0.343 0.558 1.000 1.000 1.304 0.253
s(longitude, latitude) 153.911 189.819 2.800 0.000 169.758 206.527 2.725 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.090 0.101
Deviance explained 0.111 0.128
n 6878 6103
Table 47: Results of GAM for second quintile of tree swallow records (20th-40th percentile southern).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.420 0.023 151.304 0.000 3.814 0.020 193.378 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.994 3.805 3.462 0.009 1.000 1.000 3.918 0.048
s(hottest 3-days) 1.000 1.000 0.830 0.362 5.348 6.404 2.057 0.047
s(day of year) 7.917 8.631 23.837 0.000 3.831 4.808 28.405 0.000
s(year) 1.000 1.000 8.679 0.003 1.000 1.000 4.634 0.031
s(longitude, latitude) 110.413 142.171 2.592 0.000 103.135 133.837 2.807 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.093 0.097
Deviance explained 0.111 0.116
n 6169 5511
Table 48: Results of GAM for middle quintile of tree swallow records.
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.425 0.024 143.243 0.000 3.826 0.021 180.979 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.338 3.007 2.628 0.048 1.935 2.482 1.507 0.260
s(hottest 3-days) 2.452 3.155 2.278 0.076 2.304 2.989 0.955 0.397
s(day of year) 5.023 6.093 39.924 0.000 3.917 4.901 26.385 0.000
s(year) 1.486 1.819 1.623 0.281 3.633 4.499 1.499 0.217
s(longitude, latitude) 146.793 179.621 2.260 0.000 145.835 177.751 2.479 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.112 0.110
Deviance explained 0.137 0.138
n 5679 5063
Table 49: Results of GAM for fourth quintile of tree swallow records (60th-80th percentile northern).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.270 0.026 127.233 0.000 3.763 0.023 166.406 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 3.902 4.888 3.661 0.003 2.769 3.539 1.760 0.112
s(hottest 3-days) 3.151 4.010 2.137 0.073 1.000 1.001 0.075 0.784
s(day of year) 5.433 6.547 20.010 0.000 2.854 3.653 23.493 0.000
s(year) 1.000 1.001 10.746 0.001 6.689 7.641 2.817 0.008
s(longitude, latitude) 139.756 174.878 3.364 0.000 132.570 167.216 3.859 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.122 0.145
Deviance explained 0.147 0.172
n 5330 4605
Table 50: Results of GAM for fifth quintile of tree swallow records (northernmost).
Incubation Provisioning
A. Parametric coefficients estimate std. error t-value p-value estimate std. error t-value p-value
intercept 3.427 0.029 119.323 0.000 4.053 0.025 159.812 0.000
B. Smooth terms edf ref.df f-value p-value edf ref.df f-value p-value
s(coldest 3-days) 2.647 3.390 10.766 0.000 2.173 2.796 6.126 0.001
s(hottest 3-days) 1.279 1.508 0.083 0.801 1.000 1.001 3.380 0.066
s(day of year) 6.127 7.237 14.390 0.000 2.375 3.045 33.963 0.000
s(year) 1.997 2.494 5.289 0.003 5.353 6.471 3.701 0.001
s(longitude, latitude) 150.113 183.505 3.997 0.000 124.499 157.001 4.494 0.000
Adjusted r-squared 0.149 0.158
Deviance explained 0.177 0.185
n 5009 4212